How to quickly understand complex business and think systematically about problems?

Thinking about complex issues is actually hierarchical, from the most superficial events, to the laws behind the events, to the structural model of the problem, and then to the values. After drawing the causal circuit diagram of your business system, combine this mental model to think about what level your thinking is at, and whether you can have the opportunity to drill down to a deeper level.

face up to complexity

We must admit that the world is very complicated. Just as our current technology is still unable to overcome the new crown virus, unable to accurately predict the weather, and unable to effectively control abnormal fluctuations in the economic situation, anyone who tries to superficially and neglects investment wants to understand and The arrogant approach to solving a complex problem can only end up accepting a ruthless slap in the face.

Returning to our current business in Alibaba, with the expansion of the market size, the diversity of user groups, the continuous expansion and segmentation of company organizations, and the accumulation of historical burdens on products, our business is inevitably more and more complex and difficult to understand. As explained by the famous second law of thermodynamics (the law of increasing entropy), as long as there is no work done by the external system (which I understand as a disruptive business model), our current system will inevitably continue to increase in entropy.

However, as a member of the line of business, a more comprehensive understanding of the business logic in our hands is the basic condition for us to do a good job. We certainly cannot satisfy some information that is only a point-like understanding, nor can we accept that understanding a business only Can rely on long-term work experience, so here is a tool to help you fully understand a complex system: "system thinking". Before, I would try to use it to help me sort out the business logic in my hands. I feel that it has a certain effect. I made this introductory summary, hoping to help everyone.

What is systems thinking

Our thinking mistakes

First recall, from a very young age, we are taught how to solve complex problems?

Yes, that is, through disassembly, a complex problem is disassembled into multiple less complex problems, and then the less complex problems are continued to be disassembled into simple problems, and finally, the simple problems are solved one by one. to solve the original complex problem.

This method is very remarkable, and it also achieves the greatness of human beings. We divide the world into pieces, analyze them one by one, and then combine and restore them. The way of thinking follows this simple rule: "The sum of the parts equals the whole." This split way of thinking is more effective in most cases, and it creates the illusion that the world is made up of individual events, without seeing the ubiquitous, overall complex relationships, Interaction, resulting in short-term, blind and catastrophic human behavior. Just like "Blind Man Touching the Elephant" and "Fast Thinking" all point out the limitations of this way of thinking, so in our work, if we only adhere to the "split" method, we cannot solve really complex problems.

Therefore, here we introduce a method of thinking about complex problems from the perspective of the overall system: "system thinking". The core idea of this article mainly comes from two books: "The Fifth Practice" and "System Thinking". If you read this article, you will feel that It's also a bit interesting, and you can consider finding these two books to learn more about them.

what is a system

Before introducing "system thinking", let's first confirm what "system" is.

"Systems" are complex, but not anything that looks "complex" is a system. In the scope of our discussion, a large wardrobe, a cannonball, a large bouquet of flowers are not a "system". system".

A system is a complex, unified, special-purpose whole composed of a set of interacting, interrelated, or interdependent parts, and the system has characteristics that its individual parts do not possess.

The "system" we are talking about is dynamic. For example, the following football team, tornado, and bee colony can all be called a "system".

Systems generally have three core characteristics, multiple parts, interdependencies, and unique purposes:
A system must be composed of multiple parts. If there is only one part, it must not be called a system;
Each part must be mutually dependent before, and a separate part cannot exert its value independently;
All parts together have a purpose, although it is sometimes difficult for natural and social systems to know its purpose.

What is systems thinking

Having agreed on what a "system" is, let's look at what "systems thinking" is. For better understanding, we expand system thinking into three different thinking concepts, which can be understood as "system thinking" is a method that has these three thinking modes at the same time:
[Deep thinking] You can't stop thinking on the surface of the phenomenon, you must be able to go deep into the back of the problem from the phenomenon, and find the essence of the problem;
[Global thinking] You can't look at the problem from a single point or part, but you must be able to stand a little farther and see the overall situation of the problem;
[Dynamic thinking] You can't stop at a certain moment to see the problem, you must understand that each person and each business are dynamically changing;

Systems thinking is not only a concept, but also a methodology for thinking about problems. The following focuses on how this methodology operates.

Tools and Methods for Systems Thinking

First, let's take an example. The scene on the left of the figure below is a typical system. How can we describe this system?

"A man is picking up water"? It is too simple to describe what kind of system this is;
"A person controls the faucet with his left hand, holds a cup in his right hand to catch water, and observes the water level with his eyes"? I still feel that there is a lack of structure, and it is impossible to clearly describe the dynamic and dependent relationships between the various parts of the system.

Let's look at the abstracted structure diagram on the right. Each node is a variable in the system, and different variables form relationships. Through this diagram, we can understand how different parts of the system are interdependent and affected. Now, we can predict the possible trend of the system, and we can further think about how to play a role in this system and affect the trend of the system.

Based on the above causal logic diagram that describes the interaction of various parts in the system, we introduce one of the most important tools in "system thinking": the causal circuit diagram. Let's talk about the drawing method of this causal circuit diagram.

causal loop diagram

A causal circuit diagram used to describe "systems thinking" generally consists of three parts, namely:
[Variable], a variable is a factor in the system structure we model, its value changes with time, and is generally a noun;
[Link], a link can be formed between variables, and this link is a link that forms causal logic (changes in one variable affect another variable);
[Loop], several links may form a loop. If there is a link from variable A to variable B, when there is a link from variable B to variable A, possibly through a series of other variables, a loop is formed.

Two loop models

Finding the loops in the system is one of the key points of "systems thinking", so we will focus on the loops. We have two most typical loops, one is called "enhancing loop" and the other is "balanced loop":
[Reinforcing loop]: Reinforcing loop, the increase or decrease of variables in a loop will affect the continuous increase or decrease of all links in this loop, and the development trend is uncontrolled. Our common analogies are such as "vicious circle", "" "The strong is always strong" and so on are caused by the enhancement loop;
[Balance loop]: Balance loop, the increase or decrease of variables in a loop is adversely affected by other variables in the system, so that the variables in this system will show a state of maintaining balance in the long-term dimension, such as the most common For example, if the price of pork increases significantly, more people will join the pig raising industry, and the price of pork in the second year will be reduced due to sufficient supply, and the price will remain in a balanced state in the long run.

In the following loops, we will use "R" to represent the enhancement loop, and "B" to represent the balance loop. In the link, we will use "+" to represent the positive influence between variables, and "-" to represent the difference between the variables. negative impact between.

delay on the loop

Another very important concept in the causal loop diagram is "delay".
Changes in one variable affecting another variable do not necessarily take effect immediately, and there may be a delay in the relationship between them. An example that everyone easily encounters in daily life is the problem of adjusting the temperature of the bath water (especially in an unfamiliar environment, such as a hotel). It is not easy to adjust the temperature of the water that suits you. The water temperature is too high, or it is too low, which is caused by the "time delay" between the water temperature regulator and the actual water temperature change.

After introducing the concept of time in the causal loop diagram, we add a "||" symbol between the links to indicate that there is a delay in the causal relationship between these two variables.

The most typical examples of delay in work are: the impact of recruitment on the project manpower gap, the impact of code unit testing on product quality, the impact of learning on work ability, and so on. The perception of delay is also one of the key points to help you understand the complexity of the system.

5 Fundamental Models of Systems Thinking

If everyone has an understanding of the most basic tool of system thinking, "causal circuit diagram", we can refer to the "Design Pattern" in the field of software development to think about whether there are some common models in system thinking.

Yes, there are some common and specific "routines" in the causal loop. These routines are what we often call "patterns". Here we introduce the most representative basic models in 4.

drink poison to quench thirst

"Drinking poison to quench thirst" describes how we gave up our perseverance again and again under the pressure of progress. Because of the delay on the link, we were lucky, and finally our system was burdened with heavy technical debt.

Go to the bottom of the book

"Shooting the bottom line" describes the conflict between the short-term superficial solution and the long-term fundamental solution, because the existence of reinforcement loops prevents us from prioritizing the fundamental solution of "efficiency optimization", and eventually becomes addicted to the short-term superficial solution.

target erosion

"Goal erosion" describes how, under the pressure of goal completion, we give up doing what we strive for, and instead achieve our goals by directly lowering them. Real "acceleration" measures usually take longer to take effect. It is this delay that makes us gradually turn to the above balance loop, and it becomes a habit to delay demand and reduce targets.

growth cap

"Growth Cap" describes that an enhancement loop cannot continue on its own. In a larger dimension, there must be another factor (or balance loop) limiting it. This is the growth cap.

public tragedy

"Public Tragedy" describes the limited resources shared by everyone (app homepage pop-up window), each individual (business unit) wants to maximize their own interests. The more users there are, the more it consumes the user's trust in the platform experience. With the rapid increase in the total number of pop-up windows, consumers will feel intolerable and vote with their feet when encountering a bottleneck of user tolerance.

Examples of understanding business logic

For some complex businesses that I have been exposed to in the past, I will try to use "system thinking" as a tool to help me strengthen my understanding of the business. New questions, this process helped me a lot. It should be emphasized here that "system thinking" is just a tool. Different people, facing the same system, have different information, different perspectives, and different expectations for the development direction of the system. Causal circuit diagrams are different. Therefore, "system thinking" is a tool that helps you to continuously view complex problems in a complete and systematic way through zoom out and zoom in. Through the process of using this tool, you can better think and understand the complex problems you face. question.

Ali Mini Program Ecology

mental model of thinking back

Finally, let me add that the thinking about complex issues is actually hierarchical, from the most superficial event (what is happening), to the law behind the event (what is the development trend), and then to the structural model of the problem (explaining The reasons behind the trend), to the values (the ideas that drive the pattern), and so on. After drawing the causal circuit diagram of your business system, combine this mental model to think about what level your thinking is at, and whether you can have the opportunity to drill down to a deeper level. The above is just an introduction to "system thinking". If there are students who have a stronger interest in this methodology, I look forward to communicating with you.