Wei Qing, CTO of Microsoft China

Wei Qing, CTO of Microsoft (China)

He has been involved in the fields of mobile communications, information technology and smart devices in Asia for more than 30 years. He joined Microsoft in 2003 and is now responsible for introducing Microsoft’s industry vision, innovative technology and digital transformation to China’s industry partners and industry leaders. Author of "Reconstruction of All Things-Thinking on the Eve of the Coming of Intelligent Society".

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The topic of "Science and Technology Cognitive Source Code", in the first-person tone of an exclusive interview, fully shared his cognitive system, thinking mode and values.

In this issue, we are fortunate to invite Microsoft (China) CTO Wei Qing to share the mindset that entrepreneurs need to establish in the era of digital intelligence and the issues that need to be paid attention to.

One of the dynamic period:
The pig on the tuyere is a warning, not a role model
Regardless of whether we are aware of the advent of the era of digital intelligence, we have entered the door of a new world.

I personally think that Metaverse is a concept that has been roughly translated and over-hyped. First of all, it does not appear suddenly, nor will it suddenly succeed, as Microsoft’s CEO and chairman Satya Nadella in "Refresh" As stated in the book, the vision of the future society represented by its English original meaning, Metaverse, was enthusiastically sought after by the computer industry as early as 1992, and it inspired many engineers to work hard for this goal; secondly, even at the time described Metaverse’s " In the "Avalanche" science fiction novel, author Neil Stephenson also warns of the huge risks brought by humans' excessive pursuit of virtual space. I want to use another vocabulary to guide everyone's understanding of the digital intelligence era: CPS (Cyber-Physical Systems) cyber-physical system. Its core essence is to model the physical world into cyberspace, but the second step is more important. , To optimize and calculate in cyberspace-the calculation of cyberspace has no cost other than electricity-and then feed back to the physical space, empower human flesh and skin, and help humans create more value in the real world and enjoy more good.

Standing at the entrance of such an era, if you can have a certain understanding of data, algorithms, and basic theories, it will be of great help in choosing businesses and selecting projects. I want to remind entrepreneurs that seizing the trend is definitely not pursuing the trend." The words "wind mouth" are the obvious "survivor bias" in the process of human cognition, that is, a reverse summary of a certain decision and behavior after it is proved to be correct. It is usually joke as "where to hit?"; if you say Anyone who can slap their chests and vowed to judge the future "outcome", I believe that the person who said it does not believe it. At the beginning, the phrase "Pigs fly up on the vent" was originally meant to be a warning. This is obviously counter-common sense. The flying pigs will not end up even if they think about it, but the marketing account and the irresponsible media Communication has become the golden rule of entrepreneurship, misleading many entrepreneurs who sincerely hope to learn from the successful. The entrepreneurs I have come into contact with, no matter whether they succeed or fail, the true voice is "to live", and there is a possibility of success in life. If you blindly pursue the outlet effect, you may get a temporary fluke. However, humans have many innate cognitive deviations. Once a fluke succeeds, it is difficult to recognize the limitations of the fluke. Often the road goes further and further, until it finally falls into Out of control.

The current meta-universe trend has grown into a "wind vent" again, how to judge whether a craze is a real trend or a "wind vent" out of context? We still have to dig deep into the first principles. If you have time, you can learn more about the history of computer technology and the logic of digital technology. If you really don’t have time, I’ll share a simpler method of judging: look at the past few dozens. The research trend of Nobel Prize winners in 2015 is not deceiving.

Momentary period two:
Attention should be paid to power law in the era of complex system theory
In the past few years, the Nobel Prize focused on cognitive science and behavioral science. This year, the science of the past 50 years has been made explicit, that is, the science of complexity. I have observed that the Nobel Prize has a law. It is usually awarded to the representative scientist of a new science after decades of brewing and development, and the accumulation of experience over the past few decades is concretized, and it is transformed from hidden learning. Cheng Xianxue, then may be the development of the business field. Of course, this is not an absolute indicator, but it has enough guiding significance for the topic selection of entrepreneurship.

If you are interested, you can learn about Feigenbaum's constant (4.6692...). A lot of knowledge that seems to be mathematics is essentially the use of mathematical methods to solve a specific problem in the world. You might as well learn more. When the theory of complex systems becomes apparent, this is a landmark event that reminds us that entrepreneurs will face more complex and newer challenges, which also makes us need to begin to understand and master the principles of complexity science, but the problem is that this science has just It has begun to become a prominent school and has not yet begun to integrate into the basic syllabus. This is why in this era of drastic changes, and at the same time, the era of human basic knowledge paradigm changes, it is necessary for everyone to maintain lifelong learning.

In 2021, if you are still looking for Internet business models, to be honest, Internet business models and Internet knowledge are only a small part of the entire science building. To be fair, the heroes of the past 20 years are indeed born in the Internet field. , But the power of the Internet actually stems from Metcalfe’s law, that is, the value of the network is proportional to the square of the number of network users, that is, N connections can create "N×N" benefits. Similarly, it is not about opening an online store, transforming into an e-commerce company, or becoming an Internet company using cloud computing. The essence of the Internet spirit is the spirit of not being afraid of failure and having the courage to explore, so there is now a saying called "traditional Internet companies, innovative traditional companies." It refers to even the so-called Internet companies, as long as they are conservative in their thinking and start to fear new things, they will become what they hate most at the beginning; and the so-called traditional companies, once they lay down their burdens, go lightly, and bravely try to minimize the cost of trial and error. , The pursuit of maximum return on innovation has become an "Internet" company. At this time, whether the Internet is used or not on the cloud, it is only a specific business decision of "depending on the situation, time, place, and individual", and it is the core of the enterprise. Competitiveness is not necessarily linked.

In the next era of number intelligence, everyone will study the exponential law and power law, especially the power law. In complexity science, the power law is still implicit, but I believe it will become the obvious science and become the next great interconnection of everything. The theoretical basis of the business age.

Preparation period:
Jump off the shoulders of giants, step on the mud to find out the basics
In the past few decades, standing on the shoulders of giants has been a commendatory expression, but be careful: This sentence is an expression of respect for the predecessors, and does not mean that this is a correct way of thinking.

Standing on the shoulders of giants represents a large group of entrepreneurs. Their entrepreneurial foundation is based on empiricism, inductive methods and even imitating to follow suit. Faced with the huge impact of digital intelligence technology, they use the shoulders and experience of giants. Doctrine is the foundation of entrepreneurship, and the probability of failure is high, because this foundation itself is the object to be shattered by change.

It is recommended that everyone jump off the shoulders of giants and try to figure out the essence of the matter. Many successful entrepreneurs will say one sentence: face the loess and work with your face on the ground. This sentence is equally effective in the field of technology entrepreneurship, such as algorithms. Even if you are not a computer professional friend, you may wish to use a calculator to actually operate the most basic deep learning algorithm, and you can even write it with pen and paper-the principle is not complicated, and the machine is stronger than humans but the computing power and ignorance Tiredness and not easy to forget things, and a sufficient understanding of the basic knowledge can greatly reduce the risk of entrepreneurial failure.

The shoulders of giants are not only fragile, it also has another problem: you can stand by you, you can stand by others, this entrepreneurial model has almost no barriers. It is necessary to go back to the ground and rebuild the building again. Actually, as I understand, there is a clear trend of retro knowledge in the world. Many people are asking for advice from the great wisdom born in the past few hundred years. These specific methods of wisdom are reconstructed.

The reason why we have repeatedly emphasized the down-to-earth research basic theory and basic knowledge, because I think innovation and entrepreneurship are two major elements: one is technical knowledge, and the other is industry knowledge. Everyone should understand and understand at the level of "knowledge". A higher probability leads to success.

One of the start-up period:
Entrepreneurship needs to learn from history and the art of war
Management and innovation are definitely not new topics. In this era, we should not think of ourselves as unprecedented or uncomfortable. There are a lot of ancients in front of us. If we learn to learn from history and people, the success rate will be higher.

"First to be invincible, then to seek victory", a sentence in "The Art of War". To start a business, you must learn from the art of war. The art of war cannot deceive people. The battlefield is the same as starting a business. Every choice will not make you come back. If your cash flow is cut off, it will be cut off. If customers are dissatisfied, they will be lost. Both "On War" and "On War" should be read. The Japanese business community has been deeply influenced by the "Art of War", and Matsushita Konosuke is the representative.

The phrase "be invincible first and then win" contains the original principle of the world, that is, probability theory. The essence of entrepreneurship is that it is the probability of your survival first, not the probability of success. So everyone You need to understand Bayes' Theorem. Its way of thinking is to use new evidence to modify your priori ideas. For example: I estimate that my business has a 60% chance of survival. I will continue to collect new information if New information that meets this subjective judgment will increase the credibility of the subjective judgment (more likely to survive), and if it does not meet this subjective judgment, it will reduce the credibility of the subjective judgment (the probability of surviving becomes lower). It is possible to succeed if you survive.

If you have a deep enough understanding of probability, you will know the complexity of the world. The same is true for entrepreneurship. It is destined to be an uncertain event. It is a probability event. You can find some courses on probability theory on the Internet and learn it. You will definitely benefit. Very shallow. After understanding this, you will know that "being invincible first and then winning" is the original principle of this world.

Start-up period two:
There is no standard answer in the era of "open-book examination", only constant trial and error and quick correction
"Who made the question so difficult, there are correct answers everywhere", this is a lyric from singer He Yong's "Bell and Drum Tower". This song more than 20 years ago has written the characteristics of the current era: this is just one The age of correct answers is everywhere, where scientific knowledge is there, logical deduction is there, various industries, knowledge, and methodology are everywhere. We have books to read and classes at any time-as long as we have basic screening information Ability, then everything you learn is basically right and effective.

The question is: what works for me?

Many entrepreneurs, especially first-time entrepreneurs, are willing to use right and wrong to evaluate things. This is a typical "question maker" thinking. There is a clear distinction between right and wrong answers. But this is the era of open-book examinations, and opening a book is more difficult than a closed book. There is no standard answer, so there is no strict right or wrong.

Faced with a problem, there may be thousands of solutions in the world. The talents you recruit may indeed be highly skilled engineers and scientists. Everything is right, but not necessarily useful to you. How can I know? There is no way, only to try, make sure that you don’t try to die, and then quickly try and correct errors, and learn at the fastest speed with the least cost.

People are always afraid of making mistakes these days. They don't know that "making small mistakes" can avoid "making big mistakes." This is actually the "optimal solution" that can maintain the greatest degree of stability and reliability in the VUCA era. Unless you think that people can make no mistakes, then don't talk about it. The value judgment principle of "fear of making mistakes" is "I don't need to make mistakes, and making mistakes shouldn't be wrong." This concept is the biggest mistake. There is no person in this world who never makes mistakes.

One of the growth period:
There is no master, only learning of learning
Everyone must have heard a very old joke: the king rewarded him and rewarded the brave for swimming through a pond full of crocodiles. Someone swam through with his fate. The onlookers applauded thunderously. The king greatly appreciated his courage, but he The first sentence I said was: Who kicked me off?

When we were young, we used it as fun, but now we find that this is the essence of entrepreneurship. Everyone cheers and worships the people who swim through the pond, but only those who have really experienced it know how hard the entrepreneurial process is, and how it is underwater. How many bones are there.

Those who want to swim in the pool must first abandon the thinking method of onlookers who only look at the surface and draw rough conclusions. Secondly, even the master’s thinking method may not be useful to you. The thinking methods of Gates, Musk, and Munger can be seen at any time. The top climbers have completely passed on his experience of climbing Mount Everest to you, but what you want to climb is K2, you still have to learn again and explore it yourself.

Daniel Kahneman, the author of "Thinking, Fast and Slow" recently published a new book called "Noise". I recommend you to read it. Once you think in the right way, there is a high probability that you will learn more modestly and judge yourself. The sign of whether you have really entered the state of learning is: you are no longer eager to acquire knowledge, but rather construct a learning method that suits you in a hurry, that is, learning of learning. At this time, you will have a deep understanding of single loop (single loop learning), double loop (double loop learning), triple loop (three loop learning).

What single-loop learning reflects is: How to change our actions (methods)?

What Shuanghuan Learning reflects is: Do our goals and directions need to be changed?

What Sanhuan Learning reflects is: What mental model allows us to set such goals and directions, and choose such actions and methods? Do we need to change our mental model?

When I talked to many founders with certain achievements, I found that when people talked about their achievements, they were often scared and sweaty. They thought it was a fluke to survive. At the same time, I felt that I was so courageous. Everyone thinks that if they can go back to the past with the current knowledge and do it again, they will be safer and less tired. They jokingly say "stand and make money." Establishing correct learning methods to improve cognition and change the mind can increase the probability of entrepreneurial success.

Growth period two:
Follow the people who fail to start a business to learn the experience of "immortality" to have a greater probability of being alive
The late basketball superstar Kobe Bryant once asked Michael Jordan, the god of basketball, a question: "Do you want success more or hate failure more?" Jordan replied, "I hate failure very much, but I know, failure. Success is conceived in it, so I accept failure". Edison adopted another thinking model. He only admitted that he had made countless mistakes and found the way to success. But mistakes are not the same as failure. Therefore, he has always "made mistakes" and never "failed". Therefore, " "Success".

The surface layer is opposed, the bottom layer is unified, and the more essential, the more unified. The founder who really wandered through the mountain and blood of entrepreneurial corpses would not avoid failure. However, success studies have become the main force of preaching and karma to resolve the confusion. This is problematic. I suggest that entrepreneurs who have the opportunity to ask their senior entrepreneurs for advice must ask him about his failure experience, the process of failure, and the reason for the failure. Success learning is not nutritious, and failure learning is the truly valuable science.

There are too many survivor biases in this world. The biggest problem in success learning is to use partiality, ignore the failed part, and ignore the existence of probability from a logical level, forcibly establish associations between irrelevant and forcibly related relationships. Upgrade to causality.

Therefore, I suggest that everyone learn to fail more. Learning failure must be combined with the ability to reverse thinking. The grandson summed up "be invincible first and then win" 2000 years ago, and the "inverse always inverse" summed up by Charlie Munger and this year's Nobel Prize winners. They all studied the same thing. Thing: In an age of uncertainty, improve your probability of survival.

Charlie Munger is the beneficiary of reverse thinking. His classic saying is "If I knew where I would die, then I would never go there for the rest of my life." Entrepreneurship is a matter with no upper limit. As long as we are on the road, there will never be an end that is enough to be called "success". In fact, we are just "not dead".

So, learn from the failures of others, and then "don't go there for the rest of your life."