苹果和安卓,是 RIM 最终消亡的缓慢送葬者

  • After the Blackberry Outage: Last week's worldwide Blackberry outage left many customers without email, IM and web browsing. RIM offered $100 worth of free apps and one month of free technical support. The outage symbolizes RIM's slow downfall, and free offers may not be enough to restore its glory.
  • The Consumerization of IT: RIM is being left behind by the consumerization of IT. Business and consumer technology needs have coexisted, but consumerization is winning. RIM has been pounded on the consumer front, and consumer smartphone preferences have brought non-BlackBerry devices into the enterprise. RIM was once the only game in town for mobile business smartphones, but times have changed.
  • RIM's Biggest Problem: RIM's biggest problem is that it is being left in the dust by the consumerization of IT. Exchange is ruling commercial email rollouts, and ActiveSync has become a lingua franca. RIM is no longer needed in the same way, and the iPhone and Android are now good enough for most business scenarios. RIM fumbled last week and couldn't execute on its top value proposition.
  • RIM's Uptime and Reliability: RIM customers could always count on a platform that made sense for business. RIM CEO Mike Lazaridis said the company had been operating at 99.97 percent uptime over the previous 18 months, but any significant outage is unacceptable. Last week's failure in the "dual redundant, high-capacity core switch" shows that RIM's system is a point of failure.
  • The Free Offer: The free month of support is nice for budget-conscious corporations, but $100 worth of free apps is meaningless compared to an outage. RIM isn't making all of its apps eligible for the free offer, and some customers may be unhappy with the practical implementation.
  • The Market Share: RIM has 70 million subscribers, but its market share is declining. In Q2 2011, BlackBerry accounted for just 11.7 percent of worldwide smartphone sales, down from 18.7 percent the previous year. The iPhone and Android are growing rapidly, and RIM's share of the market is likely to erode further.
  • Losing the Enterprise: RIM is losing the enterprise to Apple and Google. Consumers are insisting on mobile access to email, and IT shops are finding it hard to say no to the iPhone and Android. BlackBerry offers more administration options, but most businesses are satisfied with the core features of competitors. The combination of consumer preferences, iPhone and Android's improvement, and the outage gives businesses fewer reasons to stick with RIM.
  • Security Threats: IT shops are worried about security threats from smartphones, but trusted enterprise names are on the case. VMware is preparing a virtualization platform for Android, and new technologies are allowing enterprises to build private app stores. Windows Phone is also improving and has security features.
  • Salvaging the Company: RIM must provide a full explanation of last week's core switch failure and prove that its network won't suffer any further catastrophes. It also needs a killer consumer phone to regain market share. However, RIM's failure to attract consumers with the PlayBook tablet and the outage give little confidence in its ability to do so.
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